2025 China Real Estate Market Outlook

CBRE expects full-year GDP growth to reach 4.7% in 2025 on the back of strengthened stimulus policies and the government’s adoption of a moderately loose monetary policy.

Office demand is expected to slightly improve, with net absorption projected to increase by approximately 10%. However, the accelerated influx of new supply; modest improvements in demand; and the continued dominance of cost containment strategies means nationwide average rents are expected to decline further.

Warehouse demand will remain stable as domestic consumption recovers but external demand slows. While U.S. tariffs will have only a limited impact on cross-border e-commerce leasing demand, tenants’ focus on price and quality will continue to impact rents and take-up in tier I city clusters.

The central government’s consumption stimulus will propel retail sales growth. Retailers are expected to pursue expansion and consolidation, with experience and efficiency remaining key objectives. Vacancy rates will decline after supply tops out. Rents will continue to drop, forcing landlords to focus on boosting revenue via a range of strategies.

More attractive asset prices and lower interest rates are expected to improve purchasing activity in 2025, ensuring investment volume returns to growth mode. Investors are advised to target counter-cyclical asset classes such as multifamily, regional shopping centres, modern logistics, and core office buildings in tier I cities.